Monday, June 12, 2017

One Poker Hen 158

Greetings Kaiji fans! I have chapter 158 here, but first a word from our sponsers!

This Thursday the 15th at 4:30 PM MST (10:30 PM GMT), PiGPEN and Sonickrazy will be having a rematch at E-Card live on stream! Be sure to check it out!

Thanks to Crump for the cleans and to Tambur for the typesetting!

Chapter Link
 
 "What does it mean to gamble?"


Lots of good stuff here. Kazuya got a 7, which is the highest DOWN card you can get while Kaiji has the 8 which is the lowest UP card you can get. From the reaction on Chang and Mario's faces, Kaiji does something they weren't expecting. What could that be? 

If I was a betting man, and indeed I am, I would venture to guess he chose his 2 of deuce. While it would certainly make sense here to bet your UP card and secure a win, what about after? That 2 in his hand is like an anchor around his neck. All he can rely on for maneuvering is his 8. Once he uses it, who knows what other card he will get next.

Why not try and sneak a win in with a bluff on a useless 2? Of course, that would mean diving into hell first.

8 comments:

  1. That was a brave move Kaiji! He is thinking ahead.

    This is a good chance for Kaiji to get rid of his 2 while Kazuya has his guard down, especially since having a 2 at this point would be almost useless as most of the aces have been played already.

    A move like this takes guts! guuuutttss!! GUUTTSUUU!!!!

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  2. Can he be really gambling the 2? will Kazuya even fall for that? the moment he starts doing anything other than just taking the win is the moment Kazuya can see him getting cheeky and crush him.

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    1. This round is the very definition of optimal bluffing. It seems very hard to imagine Kaiji would want to take a risk after such a close encounter with death, or that he'd gamble so easily with the lives of his innocent saviors, OR that those saviors would bet on Kaiji if he had anything less than a 7 as the remaining card. The only rationale for Kazuya calling his raise would be "well I'm comfortably in the lead by 13 lives, might as well", but this is unlikely after he got burned once already for his arrogance.

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  3. Playing a deuce is a bad move but taking a guaranteed win with the smallest possible of margin wouldn't be a bad move either. Ultimately, 2 isn't so bad: it's not any worse than 3 through 7 when facing an UP card (indeed it is better because it can beat Ace) and if there ever comes a situation like that, it's not any worse to forfeit/bluff that hand by playing a 2 than playing any other DOWN card, I don't think it's an "anchor on the neck" more than a five or six would be.

    Although admittedly, if the bluff in this round succeeds, there's roughly even odds Kaiji would have UP-UP in the next round against UP-DOWN at best, and Kazuya will probably think the UP card was a high one at that, given that Kaiji was reluctant to take the guaranteed win (giving a good chance Kazuya will fold against 8 if he plays anything short of king or ace).

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  4. I just realized something about the design of One Poker. If you have UP/DOWN in one round and move into the next round, isn't it possible for your opponent to read what card you use in the next one?

    If Kazuya cared enough it would be possible for him to know which side Kaiji's down card is on from the last round since Kaiji chose to use his UP card over his DOWN one. He could then pay attention to see if the side Kaiji takes his card is from the side the down card was on or not.

    I might be overthinking this, but I think it would be interesting if this comes into play later. Either way this story is really going places and I'm loving it!

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    1. Though it's a good observation, We don't really know the exact proportions and it may be hard to see which side you grab a card from, since they are pretty close together.

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  5. Although, yes, the best outcome for kaiji right now would be to keep his eight and win the hand with a two, and it does seem to be what Fukumoto seems to be implying with Chang's and Mario's reactions, it might not be the best move, or one he can pull off at all.
    Remember, he already tried to do that several rounds ago and that was when Kazuya managed to sneak a win from him, since to him, Kaiji is not the kind of man who would want to have a down card as his only card. So, if Kaiji tries to bet Mario's life now, Kazuya might sense something is wrong, and, realizing that Kaiji is just bluffing (because really, if it's a sure win, why would you even need to risk betting a life?) he will accept the bet, just to encounter the 8. It isn't entirely imposible for Kaiji to choose that since he is betting other people life's now. But yeah, most likely it's the two, and since Kazuya knows he cannot possibly win, he won't be able to accept the raise and will just fold.
    I was scared that this second half wouldn't be as interesting, but man, i'm as pumped as ever.

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    1. Kazuya's best move would be to risk it and raise right out of the gates, but it's natural for the fear of the UP card to slow him down, so Kaiji's raise won't look suspicious. It's pretty much set in stone regardless of the card played, so Kazuya would be wise to take the initiative. Of course Kaiji would do it even if it was an 8, it's not like Kazuya can re-raise him to more lives than he's got.

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