Tuesday, February 16, 2016

One Poker-Hen 112

Hello poker fanatics! Just letting you know, I will never reference the song Poker Face in any post I do. Please be at ease.

Thanks to Sonickrazy for the translations and to Crump Biggums for the cleans.

One Poker-Hen 112

"It was like an illness... Causing him to loosen up!"

Well how-de-do. Kazuya DOES have an ace! I hadn't considered Kazuya's feelings to getting two aces. It makes sense that he would start to unravel seeing the two best cards in his hand at the very start. Playing those two cards in succession would look mighty suspicious to someone like Kaiji. I think If Kazuya had seen Kaiji get two UP cards he would have probably gotten even more distressed. The best Kaiji could do in that situation would be to tie, if he was lucky enough to get one of the few remaining aces left in the deck. Seems I was wrong in my deductions!

Now on to the next problem. What will Kaiji do? As far as his logic goes is Kazuya not wanting to continue this losing streak. Which would mean he'd play the ace. Which, if that is the case, Kaiji would play the 2. From there, Kaiji would be sure that he would win, perhaps with 75-80% probability, maybe higher the more he thinks about it. 

With such a high probability, would you only bet the minimum?

7 comments:

  1. Thank you. Kudos to everyone who guessed it!

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  2. Kazuya knows, that Kaiji knows, he is holding another ace. I don't think Kazuya will play it right now.

    His best bet would be to wait with his ace until he draws a 2nd Up-Card.

    On the other hand, how big is the chance, that Kaiji would hold another 2!? In the upcoming round it all comes down to luck. There is again no way to know what the other person will play.

    However, Kazuya could manipulate Kaiji, by talking about his cards. Can't wait for next week!

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    Replies
    1. But what if, Kazuya knows, that Kaiji knows, that he knows, that Kaiji knows, about his other ace?

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    2. http://i.imgur.com/CUgjtUO.png

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  3. Kaiji should play the 2 and raise the bet, it would almost force Kazuya to play the ace here as he would think kaiji had played his UP card with that raise and by playing the ace it would be a safe bet.

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    Replies
    1. Raises happen after both cards are played. I suppose Kaiji could claim he's *going* to raise.

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  4. Wow.
    And I was thinking this game was just too simple for FKMT making it work, but involves a lot of retrospective.
    As always, thanks to all for taking the trouble for scanning and translating these.

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