Friday, January 15, 2016

Akagi Chapter 276

Would you believe that at this rate we'll be caught up with Akagi before the end of February? Because it's true!! It's been a long time coming (what, just short of 5 years?) but we're very nearly there! This chapter puts us another big step closer, as we discover what Akagi's 8-sou kan means for him!!

Thanks to Crump for the cleans and to Tambur for the typesetting! I'll be streaming the Jojo PS2 game this sunday at 2:00 PM PST and there will be a mahjong night tomorrow at 3:00 PM PST.

Chapter Link
"As I am now, I cannot lose!!"


So if you weren't paying attention and just took this chapter at face value it might seem as though Akagi's kan did nothing for him and we're still in the same situation. In fact, Fukumoto tried his hardest to misdirect our attention with Ohgi and the white suits' reactions. But I think anyone who was paying any attention at all will notice that something major happened here. Akagi drew an opaque tile and changed it out for his 4-sou. Why is this major?

The last 1-sou is opaque.

Stop and think about that yourself for a minute. I urge you to try and work out what that means, and how Akagi's discard of 4-sou plays into it. When you're ready, I'll tell you.

...

ready?

here we go.

We don't know what he drew, but here's what's really interesting: due to Akagi's discard of 4-sou, there are only 3 possibilities. Either he drew the 1-sou, he drew the 4-sou, or he's making an outrageous and nonsensical bluff. What do I mean? Well let's look at Akagi's hand before the draw this chapter. Since I'm only dealing with souzu here I'll just use numbers, but all the tiles I'll be talking about are sou tiles.

1-1-1-2-3-4-5

As we know, this is a 2, 3, and 5-sou wait. Therefore his draw just now was none of those tiles, or else he would have declared tsumo. That means the tile he drew was 1-sou, 4-sou, or some tile that can't form a sequence (all the 6's are used up in his kan). Let's start with the most interesting case, the 1. This is what his hand will be after drawing the 1:

(1)-1-1-1-2-3-4-5

From here, he has 3 options to keep tenpai. Either play the 4 for a 5 single wait, play the 5 for a 4 single wait, or kan on the 1 for a 2 and 5 2-sided wait. But he can't kan the 1-sou because Washizu is waiting on that tile, and as a special rule you are allowed to rob a closed kan with a kokushi. Therefore his only options are to play the 4 or the 5. Since Yasuoka has a 4-sou, he's more likely to win with the 5-sou that there's 3 of in the wall, so playing the 4-sou makes the most sense in this case.

Now, suppose he drew a 4-sou:

1-1-1-2-3-(4)-4-5

He again has 3 choices, and again the first of those choices (playing 1 for a 3 and 6 wait) is out because Washizu is waiting on the 1. Thus, his only 2 choices are to play the 4-sou (which would be a kara-giri; playing a different copy of what you just drew) for the same 2-3-5 sou wait, or to play 5-sou for a 4-sou single wait. In this case as well, playing the 4-sou makes the most sense as playing the 5-sou would give him a hell wait.

Now let's say that Akagi draws an unrelated opaque tile. We'll say a Nan.

1-1-1-2-3-4-5-(N)

What does he discard now? Well if he's aiming for a tsumo, he'll play the Nan he just drew to keep the 3-sided wait. If he's aiming for a ron on washizu, he'll play 5-sou to go into a single Nan wait. What would make no sense at all would be to play the 4-sou. By doing that, he would be dismantling his tenpai!

In other words, if he did not draw the 1- or 4-sou just now, he just made the most nonsensical and crazy bluff we have ever seen him make.

I say nonsensical, but it actually does make some sense. Looking at the other 2 scenarios, the best option IS to play the 4-sou. But still, it's conceivable for him to play 5-sou in either of the situations since he would still be in tenpai. So if he did draw an unrelated opaque tile, it would mean that he deliberately broke his tenpai up when he could have kept it and still had the appearance of a chin itsu by playing the 5-sou.

In other words, by playing the 4-sou, he would be telling Washizu "I just drew the 1- or 4-sou, or else I would've played 5-sou"

Now tell me, viewers. Do you really think he just pulled off such a crazy bluff?

24 comments:

  1. The first chapter where we've had more than 2 discards in how long?

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  2. The fact that this chapter was so focused on Washizu's and the whitesuits thoughts make me think that in fact he DID draw the 1-sou, and he's going for a single wait. Mostly because 80% of the time such an important event is narrated by the other side, it's because it's the losing one, well, except for that one time it wasn't and Washizu dealt into Akagi's mangan in the south 3rd round, but other than that it's mostly been this way all of the time.

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  3. Two observations. I wrote a longer post, but it was stupid and wrong, so I'm limiting it to these two:

    It was made TOO obvious where Akagi put the opaque tile. All his closed tiles were shown and are transparent, and an arrow was drawn to show him putting it between the 1s and the 2.

    Akagi has 7 dora, and would have 8 if he wins off a 1-sou. Those dora are Chekhov's gun. They have to come into play.

    Most likely outcome: Akagi has dismantled his hand. This is a bluff, and he wants to use the non-sou opaque tile plus the yaku from the dora to replace the yaku from the all-sou hand and score a direct hit on Washizu for a total win on points. If that's the case, I don't know why he dropped the 4 and not the 5, but I really don't feel that this is the 1-sou.

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  4. Akagi has the 1-sou. If not, then Washizu will draw it and win, which we know won't happen.

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    1. Hmm. I'm not sure.

      Washizu hasn't yet noticed the possibility of a 1-sou behind the opaque tile that Akagi drew.

      I can see two reasons for this.

      1) He's just that confident. He knows that "from the state of the board" Akagi's tile MIGHT be a 1-sou, but he also knows that he WILL draw the last 1-sou, which takes priority in his mind. In that case, I think your analysis holds up.

      2.) Due to his groggy perception of the game, he hasn't realized that an opaque 1-sou makes sense for Akagi's hand here. If he doesn't realize that now, but does realize it in the next chapter, there is a chance for his clarity to be derailed - and with it, his luck - like happened when he drew that haku with the demons on his back. In that case, a 4-sou or bluff could still succeed.

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  5. Assuming Akagi has not dismantled his hand, he has done enough to win if Washizu discards a 5-sou since the 12-Yaku he has is equivalent to a sanbaiman direct hit which everyone on Washizu's side has completely forgotten about and which will kill Washizu in terms of points at the end of the session.

    If he has taken apart his hand to bluff (and it will have to be an outrageous one since Suzuki is dealer and the only way to stall for time is for the round to end with no one winning and at least one player in Tenpai), his hand is worth 7-han (or 8 if he drew 6-pin for another dora) but he can only win from Tsumo which won't help his cause beyond the direct payment which Washizu is not 100% guaranteed to die from).

    I made a mistake about the potential hand: 3 Kan Chin-itsu is not possible because Chan-kan is possible on a Kokushi. For a valid hand Akagi needs to rely on Chin-itsu (5-han) or Kon-itsu (2-han) to get a direct hit. If he has the latter, then he needs one more han from a dora whilst maintaining Kon-itsu to fulfil a sanbaiman direct hit.

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  6. If Akagi is going for Kon-itsu and hoping to win from Washizu when he inevitably draws one of the honour tiles, he probably needs another 2 dora (I doubt he's drawn the opaque 6-pin). Since he's removed 6-sou and 8-sou as potential winning tiles the range of choices for that particular winning hand are extremely slim and help will be needed from Yasuoka to unlock more dora tiles.

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  7. Considering that there was only a few pages dedicated to what Akagi drew (it was sorta just skipped over like meh), I'd say it was 1-sou. I mean, even if it wasn't 1-sou, they'd spend at least a chapter talking about it. The fact that it was skipped over makes it more suspicious.

    I still think it's hard to win directly off Washizu. There's no reason for Washizu to deal middle/lower souzu against Akagi, or even honor tiles against an obvious one suit hand to preserve his kokushi tenpai since going to a draw will kill Akagi off due to the rank difference.

    Also, any bonus payment (tsumo or ron) will kill Washizu, he has 100 cc (1k) left and it's been stated several times that 2000 cc is the absolute limit.

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    1. Washizu has "Kokushi fever" and his mind is more or less gone due to the blood loss. Either way, it almost seems like it's being contrived to let Akagi win both by a direct hit and by topping the ranks at the end of the session.

      The scanlators have almost caught up so no one really knows the denouement until Japan and those who have stuck with this over the last decade decide to spoil it.

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  8. Thanks for the chapter guys! How many are we behind Japan?

    Anyway, this thing is rather interesting now. I don't think it is a full bluff because Ohgi's Oh-my-gods would spoil it. But may not be 1sou either,it completely kills Washizu's hand. I love how they didn't even take note that he got the dora of his kan again. These ridiculous doras will surely come into play. Does Yasuoka have a closed triplet of something in his hand again?

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  9. the new dora indicator is suspicious....the 7 sou, if we asume that akagi really got a 1 sou, his hand would be an open chin itsu dora 8 hand, meaning 13 han so an yakuman....could it be meanin anything?

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    1. i mean, could there be a possibility for akagi to reach an double yakuman and wining without a tsumo or direct hit?( i'm not very familiar with japanese mhajong, i usually play a chinese version that have some similar rules)

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    2. Tsumo on a Yakuman where Akagi is not the dealer is still not enough to overturn the points difference between him and Washizu but the direct hit payment might prove decisive in terms of blood loss as numerous others have already pointed out.

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    3. The point difference is 39000 IIRC. A tsumo yakuman would give Akagi 32000 points, 8000 of which would be taken from Washizu. This will give Akagi a 1000 point lead.

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    4. You're right about a Tsumo Yakuman for Akagi doing the job points-wise, but right now he's well short of the requisite Han needed to qualify.

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  10. I got one, check this out: double yakuman of suu kantsu and ryuuiisou, I tell you what.

    My reasoning is that Akagi just got that shaded 1-sou, so Washizu's next luck tile must be something else to advance his hand or prevent Akagi from a tsumo. The options are any remaining honor tile, which he then pons a 3rd off of Suzuki, or more convincingly Washizu can pick up the 5s. The 5s is a warning that convinces him it's time to break apart his kokushi and absorb the 5s tile instead.

    Akagi, on the other hand, already knows that he's destined for sou and honor tiles this round and decides that Washizu won't deal in. Akagi picks up a 2s and discards 1s, remaining in tenpai. Yasuoka picks up a hatsu, and next turn Akagi picks up a 3s and discards 5s, giving himself better outs. Yasuoka then picks and discards 3s, Akagi pons and discards another 1s, then Yasuoka repeats with 2s. That finishes turn #2. Akagi picks up another 2s, kans, picks 3s, kans, picks hatsu, discards his last 1s, and ends by taking Yasuoka's hatsu discard. That's only like three turns, which Washizu wouldn't be able to switch into a different hand even with his awesome luck. We can even say that it's likely Akagi will pull in the right tiles, because there are so few sou and honors left!

    1111235 > 11112235 > 1112235 /end1

    11122335 > 1112233 > 11122(333) > 1122(333) > 11(222)(333) > 1(222)(333) /end2

    12(222)(333) > 13(2222)(333) > 1G(2222)(3333) > G(2222)(3333) > (2222)(3333)GG /end3

    Even if I'm wrong, the kan of 6s and 8s is pretty suspicious given what "all greens" should look like.

    HH

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    1. Why would you deal 1-sou from 11112235? Akagi just discarded a 4-sou, it's furiten.

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    2. Only Yasuoka would deal into it without furiten, and winning off of Yasuoka isn't enough without the double yakuman. So he essentially has to pull in either tile on his own.

      As for why he doesn't simply keep the 4s to begin with, it looks like there are more 5s to wait on than 4s, but the situation could change.

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    3. If Washizu breaks his tenpia what reason would Akagi have to Not khan the 1 sou and put the 5 sou in the dora slot?

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    4. I'm not following, how do you know Akagi will draw a 5s as the new dora indicator, and why does the new dora matter to you? He'd already have a chinitsu with 8 dora without anything extra.

      I like that your idea would give Akagi an extra chance to draw, but he would ultimately have the same wait (4s) as the initial example. It's a matter of preference, extra draw vs. possibility to ron off Yasuoka.

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  11. washizu dying with any kind of direct hit or tsumo is a given, even 100 cc of blood loss would be fatal, in the condition he is right now. my question is if it's possible as for the rules of japanese mhajong to reach 26 han (double yakuman) without very special and rare hands, countung only the number of han? example( i supose akagi got the last 1 sou): akagi call riichi, next the detective deal in akagi hand, the 3 ura-dora indicator are all 7 or 9 sou. akagi would get a chinitsu, ippatsu, riichi, dora 20 hand, 26 or 27 han (still dont know if riichi count as 1 han or not), a double yakuman and overtake washizu.
    correct me if this kind of outcome isn't allowed by the rules or if i made any mistakes counting the han.

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    1. Counted Yakuman is just that, double Yakuman in the Japanese variant is only possible with incredibly rare hands which are combinations of the Yakuman hands (such as 13-sided wait Kokushi, 9-sided wait Kyuuren, Dai Tsuu Shi, Dai San Gen with Tsuu Yi Sou etc.)

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  12. As mentioned above there is no double counted yakuman. Also a counted yakuman does not stack with other yakumans. For example a suu kantsu hand and 13 han is not a double yakuman. Finally Akagi cannot call richi, since his hand is not concealed (he has open kans)...

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